Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 6 August is likely to be a **single overnight reading** in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, because the official forecast for the city points to a minimum around 26°C and a hot, humid day with only a few showers. The current 0% YES implies the market is not pricing any upside to an unusually cool print, so a programmatic trader would mainly treat this as a data-release event rather than a weather-direction bet, with the settlement driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract rather than intraday noise.[6][13]

Historically, August in Hong Kong sits in the hottest part of the year, with typical daytime highs around 31°C to 32°C and overnight lows near 26°C to 28°C, alongside heavy rainfall and monsoon-driven humidity. That seasonal baseline matters because the lowest temperature range in the market will usually cluster near the forecast minimum unless a rain band or stronger onshore flow materially lowers the overnight floor; comparable August descriptions from weather services and climate summaries all point to broadly similar heat and humidity patterns rather than sharp cold outliers.[1][3][12][16]

For traders using apps, bots, or conditional orders, the key catalyst is the Hong Kong Observatory’s publication of the finalized “Daily Extract” for 6 August, which must appear before the market can resolve. Until then, the practical workflow is to watch the official forecast updates, then poll the Observatory page for the completed absolute daily minimum once data is posted; if a model is trading ranges, the one-decimal Celsius convention means the exact printed value, not the rounded public forecast, determines the winning band.[5][6][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.