Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's daily minimum temperature on 17 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. This single-day weather observation represents a straightforward factual settlement against a published government source, with no discretion in how the figure is reported once the Observatory finalises its records.

August is Hong Kong's peak summer season, with daily minima typically ranging between 25°C and 27°C during this month. Historical data from the Observatory shows that sub-25°C readings in mid-August are exceptionally rare—such temperatures would require either a tropical cyclone system or an unusual monsoon shift to bring cooler air masses into the region. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in the expectation that no extreme cooling event will occur, consistent with seasonal norms. Reviewing the Observatory's climate statistics for August across recent decades provides the baseline for calibrating which temperature bands are genuinely plausible versus theoretical edge cases.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is the publication schedule of the Observatory's Daily Extract. Data typically becomes available within 24–48 hours of the observation date, though the settlement window extends to 12:00 UTC on 17 August to accommodate any delays in official release. Monitoring the Observatory's website directly or setting up conditional alerts tied to their data feed is more reliable than secondary weather services, since resolution hinges on their specific "Absolute Daily Min" figure. Tropical cyclone forecasts issued by the Observatory in early-to-mid August would be the primary catalyst shifting market expectations, as any named system tracking toward Hong Kong would materially alter the probability distribution across temperature bands.

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.