Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 19 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The airport's weather station sits at 25 metres elevation in the city's eastern district and captures conditions representative of urban Wuhan rather than rural surroundings, a distinction material to how historical records translate to this specific measurement point.

July represents Wuhan's hottest month climatologically, with thirty-year averages peaking near 33°C. The city's position in the Yangtze River valley creates a heat-trapping effect; daily maxima regularly exceed 35°C during mid-summer, with extremes reaching 40°C+ in anomalous years. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across all ranges. Comparable markets on Chinese summer temperatures show traders typically anchor to recent decade patterns rather than pre-2000 records, given urbanisation effects and measurement consistency improvements. Wunderground's historical data for this station extends reliably back to 2009, providing a usable reference set of seventeen prior July 19th observations.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal forecasting updates from the China Meteorological Administration, typically issued in early July with monthly outlooks. El Niño or La Niña conditions influence East Asian summer monsoon strength and thus Wuhan's precipitation and cloud cover—both direct drivers of daily maximum temperature. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 19 July, requiring API access to Wunderground's historical archive for automated resolution verification. Temperature data updates daily at approximately 23:00 UTC once the local observation day concludes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.