Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 26 June 2026, a date falling in New Zealand’s winter season. Historical patterns and recent forecasts indicate daily maxima typically hover between 7°C and 10°C under cloud cover, onshore winds, and light rain, which suppress daytime warming. For instance, a forecast for 21 June 2026 predicted a high of just 9°C with gusts up to 50 km/h from the north, reinforcing the trend of cool, damp conditions during this period[3]. Similarly, seasonal outlooks from NIWA note that onshore airflows continue to occasionally suppress daytime temperatures in eastern regions like Wellington, with cold snaps more likely in late June[4]. These comparable cases explain why the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above 12°C is consistent with observed climatology.

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and MetService for shifts in wind direction, cloud density, or unexpected solar exposure, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature deviations. A recent MetService forecast for 26 June 2026 warns of periods of rain with heavy falls at times, with a predicted high of only 9°C, further validating the low probability of higher temperatures[10]. Conditional orders or copy-trading bots could be configured to react to sudden drops in wind speed or increases in UV index, though such events remain rare in winter. The settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC means traders must act before midday, when temperatures are still climbing from the morning low. No major announcements or scheduled dependencies are expected to alter the baseline forecast, making this a straightforward utility case for evaluating weather-based prediction tools.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.