Highest temperature in Wellington on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 8 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the “YES” outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range. Historically, Wellington in early July sees maximum temperatures typically between 13°C and 16°C, with occasional dips to 11°C during strong southerly flows. A comparable market from July 6 estimated a 51% chance of 13°C as the peak, reflecting the coin-flip nature of mid-winter highs in this region[3]. These patterns frame the current 0% probability as an outlier unless a significant cold snap or data anomaly is anticipated.

Traders should monitor live weather feeds from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for real-time updates on Wellington’s conditions, particularly wind speed, humidity, and precipitation intensity[1][2]. Recent forecasts indicate strong winds and rain with a maximum of 15°C today, consistent with typical early-July variability[2]. A key catalyst is the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 8 July 2026, which requires precise timing for data validation. Programmatic approaches would involve scraping Wunderground’s hourly history API and cross-referencing with NOAA’s time-series data to confirm the daily maximum[1]. Any deviation from the expected 13–16°C range—such as a drop to 11°C due to a southerly surge—would invalidate the “YES” outcome and justify the current 0% probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.