Highest temperature in Wellington on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. With the crowd-implied probability of a “YES” outcome sitting at 0%, the market currently treats any temperature above the lowest bracket as virtually impossible, reflecting a strong consensus that July in Wellington will remain cool.

Historically, July is the coldest month at Wellington International Airport, with an average high of just 54°F (approximately 12°C) and an average low of 47°F (around 8°C)[4]. Recent comparable data shows a July 1, 2026 peak of 12°C at the same station[1], while current observations on 6 July 2026 record 15°C with persistent rain and strong southerly winds[2][8]. These figures align with the 0% probability, as temperatures rarely exceed 15°C in mid-July under typical south-westerly conditions.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for any anomalous shifts, though no extreme heat forecasts are currently active for Wellington[3]. Unlike the record-breaking 95°F (35°C) heat seen at O’Hare in Chicago on 1 July 2026, Wellington faces no such thermal catalysts, and the persistent rain and 44km/h southerly winds further suppress warming potential[7][8]. Programmatic approaches would involve querying Wunderground’s hourly API at settlement and comparing against the 12–15°C historical band to validate the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.