Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature at Wellington International Airport on 21 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for NZWN. Today’s live reading shows 15°C with strong south-south-westerly winds and rising pressure, conditions that typically suppress extreme heat in midwinter Wellington.

Historical July highs at NZWN rarely exceed 18°C, with most days clustering between 10°C and 16°C; the 0% crowd-implied probability for any outcome above the frontrunner 12°C aligns with this pattern, as temperatures above 17°C are exceptional in this month. Programmatic traders would backtest NZWN’s July 2020–2025 daily highs to calibrate conditional orders, noting that the 12°C frontrunner at 100% on Polymarket reflects tight consensus on winter norms [3].

Key catalysts include the MetService’s 72-hour forecast updates and any sudden shifts in wind direction from the south-westerly to northerly, which can raise temperatures by 5–8°C within hours. Traders should monitor the MetService’s daily weather bulletins for New Zealand, as a northerly surge announced in the next 24 hours could invalidate the current 12°C consensus and trigger rapid re-pricing [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.