Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature on 14 August 2026, and this market bins that reading into temperature ranges in Celsius. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular, station-level dataset—rather than the summary Day High & Low figures, a distinction that matters when automated feeds pull conflicting values. For programmatic traders, this means validating the source URL structure and confirming which Wunderground endpoint publishes the authoritative observation log before settlement.

August in Wellington sits in mid-winter, with historical August maxima typically ranging from 11 to 14 degrees Celsius at the airport station. The 0% crowd probability suggests confidence that the temperature will fall outside the highest range bracket offered; cross-referencing prior August 14th readings and the station's seasonal variance will clarify whether that reflects genuine scarcity of extreme heat or simply a narrow upper bin. Traders building conditional orders should pull five to ten years of Wunderground historical data for this specific station to establish baseline distribution and identify outlier years.

The New Zealand MetService publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead; monitoring their August outlook in early 2026 will signal whether anomalous warmth is expected. Automated alerts tied to MetService's official forecast updates or significant pressure system shifts over the Tasman would flag material catalyst events. Since this resolves mid-morning UTC (midnight Wellington time plus twelve hours), traders in other zones should confirm the exact settlement timestamp against their exchange's clock to avoid settlement-window surprises.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.