Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak heat recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 9 July 2026, a date historically prone to extreme summer temperatures. Current crowd-implied probability suggests a 0% chance for the "YES" outcome, yet this contradicts broader market data where the 30°C range commands a 97% probability on Polymarket[1]. Historical patterns from Reddit travellers confirm that mid-to-late July in Tokyo routinely hits 36°C to 40°C with humidity exceeding 95%, creating a concrete jungle environment[3]. Recent records from Japan’s Meteorological Agency show Tamba city hitting 41.2°C and Isesaki reaching 40.2°C just days ago, reinforcing that 30°C is a baseline rather than an outlier for this period[7][8].

A programmatic trader should monitor Wunderground’s live feed for the Haneda station, specifically the daily high timestamp, as the resolution source is strictly tied to this data point[1]. Key catalysts include the Japan Meteorological Agency’s summer forecasts and any sudden shifts in regional wind patterns, such as the gentle north-north-westerly breeze currently observed at 5 mph[4]. Conditional orders should be triggered by real-time temperature spikes above 35°C, which align with the 99% probability of a 23°C minimum low on the same day[2]. Traders must also verify air conditioning functionality in local hotels, as stored heat in concrete surfaces can elevate perceived temperatures even after sunset, a critical dependency for accurate heat modelling[3]. The settlement window ending 2026-07-09T12:00:00Z requires precise data ingestion before the deadline to avoid resolution errors.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.