Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Celsius, a metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely due to the high baseline heat typical of early July in Tokyo. Historically, July in this region marks the onset of the hot season, which runs from late June to mid-September, with average daily highs consistently exceeding 79°F (26°C). For instance, recent July forecasts show daily highs between 76°F and 91°F (24°C–33°C), while actual records from 2025 note Japan’s highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in Hyogo Prefecture, indicating that extreme heat is not uncommon in the broader region[2][8].

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground and RP5, which provide hourly updates on temperature, precipitation, and wind speed at Haneda Airport[1][3]. Key catalysts include sudden shifts in atmospheric pressure, the arrival of light rain (as forecasted for today), and humidity levels that can elevate perceived heat. A recent Reuters report highlights Japan’s record-breaking 41.2°C temperature in 2025, underscoring the volatility of summer heat in the region and the need for dynamic conditional orders to adjust positions as new data emerges[8]. Programmatic strategies might involve scraping Wunderground’s API for live temperature readings and executing trades based on predefined thresholds, ensuring alignment with the settlement window ending 2026-07-05T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.