Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 17 July 2026 will be recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. The current 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects no extreme heat event, a stance that aligns with mid-July baselines where temperatures typically hover between 25°C and 32°C. Historical data from Wunderground shows that July 17 in recent years has rarely breached 35°C at Haneda, with the last notable spike occurring in 2018 when 36.2°C was recorded [1]. Such outliers are usually driven by sustained high-pressure systems and low wind, conditions that remain uncommon in the current seasonal forecast.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily high-pressure advisories and the 5-day ensemble forecast for the Kanto region, as sudden shifts in the Pacific subtropical ridge could trigger rapid temperature spikes. A recent JMA bulletin highlighted increased confidence in a stable high-pressure pattern over Tokyo for mid-July, reducing the likelihood of extreme heat [2]. Programmatically, this market is best approached by polling Wunderground’s hourly history endpoint at 00:00 UTC on 18 July, then mapping the peak value to the predefined resolution ranges. Conditional orders triggered by a 34°C+ forecast from JMA’s 3-day model would capture asymmetric upside if the crowd’s 0% probability misprices a late-summer anomaly.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.