Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be measured at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak reading. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s daily history for RJTT, capturing the single highest value recorded at any time on that date.

Historically, mid-July in Tokyo sees highs between 28°C and 34°C, with extreme heatwaves pushing readings toward 36°C or higher. The current 0% YES crowd-implied probability suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined YES range, likely because the range is set too low for typical July peaks or misaligned with recent climatic trends. Programmatic traders would back-test Haneda’s July 16 records from 2015–2025 to identify the 95th percentile threshold, then deploy conditional orders if live forecasts breach that level.

Key catalysts include the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly heat advisory schedule and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, which can trigger rapid temperature spikes. Traders should monitor the 5-day ensemble forecast from JMA and real-time updates from Wunderground as the settlement window closes. A recent JMA bulletin noted increasing confidence in a prolonged heat period across the Kanto region through mid-July, reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures exceeding 32°C [1]. Automated scripts can poll the Wunderground API hourly on 16 July to trigger execution once the live peak enters the YES range.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.