Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a hard cutoff for the highest reading captured across the full calendar day in Tokyo local time. For automated resolution workflows, the data source is stable and machine-readable, though traders should verify the timezone handling—Haneda reports in Japan Standard Time (UTC+9), and Wunderground's historical archive requires explicit selection of the correct station code (RJTT) to avoid mismatched readings.

Mid-July sits within Tokyo's tsuyu (rainy season) transition into peak summer heat. Historical July averages at Haneda range from 28–32°C for daily highs, though extremes have reached 37–39°C during heatwave conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests either high uncertainty around specific temperature bands or sparse liquidity across the resolution ranges. Traders building conditional orders should cross-reference Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released 7–10 days prior; these typically carry better granularity than global models for Tokyo's microclimate, particularly given Haneda's coastal location and urban heat island effects.

The key dependency is whether an upper-atmosphere high-pressure system establishes over the Kanto region during that week. Recent patterns (2023–2025) show mid-July heat spikes correlating with Pacific anticyclone positioning. Programmatic traders should monitor JMA's extended forecasts and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Western Pacific from early July onwards; these drive the probability distribution across temperature bands more reliably than single-model ensemble means.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.