Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature is normally decided by a relatively narrow afternoon peak, with the Haneda Airport station typically sitting in the low 30s Celsius in August rather than extreme 35°C-plus territory. Current forecast-style guidance for early August points to highs around 88°F/31°C, while climatology for Tokyo in August is close to 31°C on average, so the market is really about whether the day lands in a standard hot-summer band or pushes several degrees above it.[1][3][7]

For traders reading the 0% yes price programmatically, the cleanest approach is to map the outcome bins against the upper-end forecast distribution rather than the daily mean. JMA’s Tokyo-area daily data already shows Haneda’s early-August highs around the mid-30s on some days, but the settlement source here is Wunderground’s Haneda Airport station, so the decisive input is the single maximum temperature value for the day, not the station’s average or another Tokyo location’s reading.[2][4] That makes the key historical analogue a summer day with a brief spike around local mid-afternoon, where the closing temperature range depends on whether the station touches 31°C, 32°C, 33°C or higher before easing later.

What matters operationally is the heat-risk stack: any official heat advisories, a clear sky and strong insolation, and the absence of tropical rain or cloud cover that would cap the daytime maximum. Tokyo’s August weather is seasonally humid and often oppressive, and recent coverage has described Japan’s 2026 summer as persistently hot, with extreme temperatures already appearing elsewhere in the country.[15][16][18] A power-user workflow would watch live forecast updates, compare them with station-specific history, and only shift exposure when the modelled high moves across a settlement threshold that changes the most likely bin.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.