Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the authoritative source for this market's settlement. The distinction between the Daily Observations granular readings and the Day High & Low summary section matters operationally; automated resolution will pull from the former, making data source verification essential for any programmatic approach to position management.

August in Tokyo typically peaks between 32–35°C, with historical records showing extreme heat events occasionally pushing toward 40°C during particularly intense heatwaves. The 2023 summer saw Tokyo reach 37.5°C on multiple days; the 2010 heatwave produced a 39.9°C reading. Current crowd probability at 0% suggests the market is pricing in a specific temperature threshold that sits well outside typical August conditions. Traders should cross-reference the exact range boundaries against historical Haneda data to understand what threshold the crowd considers implausible.

Catalysts for August 2026 include the Pacific high-pressure system's strength in mid-summer, any tropical cyclone activity affecting the region, and urban heat island effects particular to central Tokyo. Seasonal forecasts from Japan Meteorological Agency typically become reliable 2–3 weeks before the target date. For programmatic traders, setting conditional orders tied to JMA medium-range forecasts released in late July would allow automated position adjustments as atmospheric patterns clarify. Weather Underground's API availability and historical data consistency should be validated before committing capital.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.