Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Songshan Airport Station and resolved against historical records via Wunderground's daily archive. July is Taiwan's peak summer month, with typical daily highs ranging from 32–35°C, though heat waves can push readings above 37°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range of possible outcomes.

Historical July data from Taipei shows considerable year-to-year variance. The past decade's July maxima have ranged from 33°C to 38°C depending on monsoon patterns and high-pressure systems. Comparable markets on East Asian summer temperatures have typically seen probabilities cluster around the 34–36°C range during this period, with tail outcomes (sub-33°C or above-38°C) receiving minimal backing. A trader programmatically monitoring this market would benefit from anchoring forecasts to the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlooks, released quarterly, which flag whether the coming months favour above or below-normal temperatures across the Western Pacific.

Wunderground's historical data structure allows conditional order logic: traders can set automated positions that trigger if temperature forecasts shift or if comparable regional stations report anomalies. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 July, meaning local morning readings will determine the final outcome. Monitoring Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecasts in early July will provide the most actionable signal for recalibrating positions ahead of the resolution date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.