Highest temperature in Taipei on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature at Taipei Songshan Airport on 12 July 2026, with settlement tied to the daily high recorded on Wunderground. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any specific outcome, yet Polymarket data shows 37°C as the frontrunner at 96% probability, while 34°C holds 37% and 35°C 29% [1]. This divergence suggests the 0% figure may reflect a technical display error or a lack of active liquidity rather than genuine market disbelief in high temperatures.

Historically, July is Taipei’s hottest month, with Taipei Songshan Airport averaging a high of 92°F (33.3°C) [3]. Recent METAR data for RCSS on 12 July 2026 shows a current temperature of 27°C with a heat index of 31°C and 84% humidity, while the Central Weather Administration reports an apparent temperature of 35.95°C at 09:30 local time [6][7]. These readings align with seasonal norms where highs frequently reach 34–37°C, making the 0% probability statistically anomalous unless a major cooling event is imminent.

Traders should monitor hourly METAR updates from RCSS and the Central Weather Administration’s airport bulletins, which issue real-time apparent temperature and humidity data [6][7]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s published daily high, so any discrepancy between live METAR readings and Wunderground’s final figure could create arbitrage opportunities. A recent forecast from Yr indicates heavy rain and 95mm precipitation for Sunday 12 July, which could suppress temperatures below the seasonal average and invalidate the 37°C consensus [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.