Highest temperature in Taipei on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The practical question is where the **highest observed temperature at Taipei Songshan Airport** will land within the market’s resolution bands, using the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low figure. For a trader running this programmatically, the key input is not a forecast headline but the final logged station data and its timestamped updates, because late revisions can still matter until Weather Underground publishes the first datapoint for the next day.

The current crowd price of 3% for YES implies the market is treating an unusually hot reading as a low-probability tail event, which is consistent with Taipei’s late-summer climatology but still leaves room for sharp intraday spikes if cloud cover breaks or rainfall misses the station. Comparable Taipei temperature markets on prediction venues have tended to cluster around the high-20s to low-30s Celsius, with recent market commentary noting 27–31°C official forecasts and a market lead near 28°C, while broader August climate guides describe Taipei as typically hot, humid, and often around the low- to mid-30s on peak days.[1][3][6][17]

The main catalysts to monitor are the Central Weather Administration forecast updates, the timing of rain bands, and any typhoon-related shifts that alter cloud cover and ventilation before the noon UTC settlement cut-off. In practice, a bot or conditional-order workflow should watch for revisions to the CWA 7-day forecast, local morning precipitation, and whether Songshan’s observation series posts an early low ceiling on the day’s maximum; Weather Underground’s own market notes indicate that revisions inside the settlement window can persist until the next day’s first datapoint is published.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.