Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at stake is the peak temperature recorded on 1 July 2026 at Singapore Changi Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. This single daily maximum determines the market outcome, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026.

Historically, July in Singapore sees average highs of 31°C and lows of 25°C, with heat indices often reaching 41.5°C due to humidity and cloud cover[1]. BBC Weather observations for Changi Airport on 1 July 2026 recorded 28°C at 01:00 BST, with a daytime peak of 30°C under hazy conditions[2]. These comparable cases suggest that a 0% YES probability implies the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range—likely below a threshold that would trigger a “YES” resolution, given typical July variability.

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds and National Weather Service time-series data for WSSS, which tracks hourly highs and lows[7]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate daily highs between 85°F and 90°F (29.4°C–32.2°C) for July 2026, with overnight lows of 77°F–81°F[6]. Programmatically, a power-user would deploy conditional orders triggered by Wunderground’s hourly updates, cross-referencing with Singapore’s Meteorological Service historical records[5] to validate anomalies. No sudden announcements are expected, but dependencies include cloud cover shifts and thunderstorm timing, which can suppress peak temperatures despite high heat indices[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.