Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen's daily maximum temperature on 19 August 2026 will be recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station and matched against defined temperature bands. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary high-low display, a distinction that matters when automated systems scrape weather data—discrepancies between the two sources have occurred during extreme heat events or sensor recalibrations. A trader building conditional orders or bot logic should flag this source hierarchy explicitly, as mismatched data feeds could trigger unintended settlements.

August in Shenzhen typically peaks between 32–34°C, though the city has recorded 38°C+ during heat waves in 2013, 2015, and 2022. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a cooler-than-normal outcome or thin liquidity at the highest temperature bands. Historical August data from Bao'an shows that temperatures exceeding 36°C occur roughly once per decade; 35–36°C appears in roughly 30% of August records. A trader evaluating this market should cross-reference the specific temperature thresholds offered against this distribution to identify mispriced bands.

Monitoring points include tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during mid-August—systems tracking toward Guangdong typically suppress peak temperatures by 2–4°C through cloud cover and moisture. The China Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts, updated daily, provide the most reliable lead indicator. Sea surface temperatures in the Taiwan Strait and timing of the East Asian summer monsoon's retreat will shape whether August 19 sits within the seasonal norm or deviates significantly.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.