Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen will record a daily maximum temperature on 11 August 2026, measured at Bao'an International Airport's official weather station. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single highest reading, sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than their summary high-low display—a distinction that matters when automated systems pull data across multiple feeds.

August in Shenzhen sits firmly within the summer monsoon season, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 32–35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific meteorological forecasts or treating this as a calibration exercise against seasonal norms. Comparable August days at Bao'an show consistent clustering: between 2015 and 2023, only three days exceeded 36°C, whilst temperatures below 31°C occurred in fewer than 5% of cases. This distribution provides a baseline for evaluating whether the market's current odds reflect genuine uncertainty about an outlier event or simply reflect sparse early trading.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early August 2026, as any system approaching the Pearl River Delta would suppress daytime highs through cloud cover and precipitation. The China Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts that typically stabilise four to five days before the resolution date. Weather Underground's station data updates daily; integrating their API feeds into conditional order logic allows traders to refine positions as the forecast cone narrows and actual atmospheric patterns emerge closer to mid-August.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.