Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 29 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Historically, June in Shanghai sees daily highs climbing from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely dipping below 69°F (21°C) or exceeding 92°F (33°C)[1]. Summer conditions regularly push temperatures above 30°C (86°F), with peaks reaching 35°C (95°F) during intense sunshine[5]. Given this baseline, a 0% YES probability implies the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range—likely below the lower threshold, which contradicts typical June patterns unless an unusual cold front intervenes.

For a programmatic trader, the key catalyst is the immediate weather schedule: today’s forecast shows light rain and a gentle breeze with a temperature of 29°C at Hongqiao, closely mirroring Pudong conditions[2]. Thunderstorm risk remains at 25% for 29 June, which could suppress peak temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation[6]. Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates and National Weather Service time-series data for ZSPD, downloading CSV files to automate conditional orders[3]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 indicate highs between 80°F and 85°F (27°C–29°C), reinforcing that a sub-range outcome is statistically anomalous unless a sudden meteorological shift occurs[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.