Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date that sits squarely within the city’s peak summer heat season. Historical data confirms that daily highs in June at this location typically climb from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F, with summer peaks regularly surpassing 30°C and occasionally reaching 35°C under intense sun[3][5]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific temperature range is 0% YES, this likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s defined resolution bands and the statistically probable range, rather than an expectation of unusually cool weather. A power-user would programmatically scrape Wunderground’s historical daily archive for ZSPD, cross-reference it with AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast (which projects highs of 80°–86°F), and model the probability distribution to identify mispriced bands[4].

Traders should monitor real-time meteorological updates from the National Weather Service for ZSPD, particularly any sudden shifts in wind direction, humidity, or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures below the seasonal norm[2]. While no specific weather-related announcements are scheduled for this date, the broader context includes Shanghai’s ongoing heatwave patterns, which have seen temperatures exceed 30°C in recent weeks, as reported by BBC Weather for Hongqiao Airport on the same day[1]. A conditional order strategy would involve setting alerts for Wunderground’s live hourly data, triggering trades only if the observed temperature breaches the upper bound of the forecast range (86°F) or falls below the lower bound (80°F). The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 27 June 2026, meaning any late-afternoon heat spike after 8 AM UTC could still influence the final resolution, requiring continuous monitoring until the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.