Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daily temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms that July in Shanghai is consistently hot and humid, with average daily highs ranging from 26–31°C and frequent peaks reaching 35°C or higher, as seen in 2025 when temperatures hit 38°C [2][6]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific temperature range appears misaligned with these climatic norms, given that daily highs rarely fall below 26°C and often exceed 30°C during this period [1][2]. A power-user evaluating this tooling would programmatically query Wunderground’s historical API for the station ZSPD to back-test resolution logic against similar dates, ensuring the conditional order triggers only when the forecasted high breaches the defined threshold with statistical confidence [2].

Traders must monitor the immediate weather forecast for Shanghai Pudong, particularly the 9 July 2026 prediction showing daily highs between 86°–97°F (30°–36°C) and overnight lows of 77°–81°F [3][7]. The primary catalyst is the diurnal temperature curve, which typically peaks around 3 PM, a critical dependency for the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC [2]. Recent climate data indicates that 9 July 2026 is forecast to have broken clouds with a high of 33°C (91.4°F), a figure that sits squarely within the expected seasonal range [5]. A systematic approach would involve setting up automated alerts for Wunderground updates at 10:00 UTC to capture the latest hourly reading before the market resolves, ensuring the conditional order executes based on the most current verified data rather than static projections [2][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.