Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daily temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome above the lowest range, yet historical data suggests this stance ignores typical seasonal patterns. July at Pudong usually sees daily highs climbing from 84°F to 88°F (29°C to 31°C), rarely dropping below 75°F (24°C) or exceeding 95°F (35°C)[1]. Recent global model forecasts and China Meteorological Administration data align with market clustering around 32–34°C, indicating a 53% chance for 35°C and 40% for 36°C on this specific date[2]. A programmatic trader would script a scraper to pull Wunderground’s hourly history for ZSPD, cross-referencing it with the 35°C threshold to flag conditional orders before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Traders must monitor immediate weather dependencies, particularly the drizzle and gentle breeze forecasted for today, which could suppress peak temperatures if sustained through midday[3]. The key catalyst is the shift in shortwave solar energy, which gradually increases by 0.5 kWh during July, rising from 5.1 kWh to 5.6 kWh and potentially driving higher afternoon peaks if cloud cover clears[1]. While no specific government announcement is pending, the China Meteorological Administration’s daily updates remain the primary dependency for validating the 35°C threshold[2]. A bot would track wind speed increases from 11.3 mph to 12.4 mph over the month, as higher winds often correlate with lower peak temperatures, adjusting conditional orders dynamically as real-time data streams in.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.