Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 3 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground history. Current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome sits at 0%, yet the market frontrunner is 31°C at 42%, with 30°C trailing at 32%[1]. This divergence suggests the 0% label likely refers to a specific binary threshold rather than the entire range, as historical data confirms summer highs regularly exceed 30°C, often reaching 35°C during sunny spells[8]. July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with an average high of 87°F (30.6°C), making sub-30°C outcomes statistically improbable[6].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor real-time radar feeds for morning thunderstorms, which AccuWeather forecasts for today, potentially capping the peak temperature[2]. The key catalyst is the timing of cloud cover dissipation; if skies clear by midday, temperatures could surge toward 35°C, whereas persistent overcast conditions may keep highs near 30°C. Traders should also watch the 12:00 UTC settlement window dependency, ensuring Wunderground data updates are captured before resolution[1]. No major weather announcements are pending, but the poor air quality and high humidity (84%) noted in current reports may influence heat retention dynamics[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.