Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Pudong International Airport station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. Current conditions show overcast skies and scattered afternoon showers, with a maximum forecast of 36°C and a minimum of 28°C, suggesting the day’s heat will be moderated by rain and cloud cover [2][3]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any YES outcome reflects this immediate meteorological reality: wet, humid air is suppressing extreme highs.

Historically, mid-July in Shanghai often sees temperatures between 32°C and 39°C, but 2025 and early 2026 have shown more variability due to monsoon influences. A comparable case is the July 15 market, where 39°C was assigned 100% probability, indicating a hot, dry day; today’s wet conditions contrast sharply, making lower ranges more plausible [4]. For programmatic traders, this divergence signals a clear edge: conditional orders triggered by real-time Wunderground updates could capture mispriced ranges before settlement.

Key catalysts include the timing and intensity of afternoon thunderstorms, which directly cap peak temperatures, and any sudden shifts in wind direction from the sea. Traders should monitor the 180° wind at 8kt and 80% cloud cover noted in current forecasts, as these dependencies will determine whether the day breaches 35°C [3]. No official announcements are expected, but Wunderground’s hourly data feed will be the definitive source for resolution, making automated scraping of that endpoint essential for accurate position management.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.