Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement mechanism explicitly prioritises this granular dataset over the summary Day High & Low figures, meaning traders need programmatic access to the correct data source rather than relying on casual weather app screenshots. This distinction matters: observation tables capture minute-level readings, whilst summary sections often round or smooth values.

August in Shanghai typically peaks between 32–35°C, with occasional excursions toward 36–37°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five Augusts shows the airport station recording highs in the 33–34°C band roughly 60% of the time, with 35°C+ days occurring in roughly 25–30% of cases. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a cooler-than-typical outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable markets on Shanghai summer temperatures have resolved across the full range, indicating no systematic bias in forecasting.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Pacific typhoon activity in late July and early August can suppress temperatures significantly; conversely, sustained high-pressure systems over eastern China drive sustained heat. Automated feeds from Weather Underground's API allow conditional order placement once forecasts crystallise, though the settlement window closes at midday UTC on 12 August, creating a tight window for last-minute adjustments based on morning observations.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.