Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s **10 August peak temperature** will be set by the highest reading logged at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not by any summary high. With the market already open on the day, a programmatic trader would usually treat the open as a live data problem: poll the station page, normalise Celsius values, and map the observed maximum into the settlement band before the window closes at 12:00 UTC.

The historical frame is straightforward: early-August Shanghai is typically hot and humid, and recent nearby history shows daytime highs often in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with occasional spikes higher. Weather Underground’s Shanghai history page shows a daily high of 82°F, while other historical services for the same period put recent August highs around 33–35°C and sometimes higher, which is enough to explain why a zero-probability price can appear if traders expect the day’s maximum to stay below the first listed band or if they are misreading the resolution source. Comparable past August readings therefore matter less than the exact station trace on the day itself.[7][5][9]

For catalysts, the key inputs are the hourly evolution of cloud, rain, and wind at Pudong Airport, plus any short-notice forecast updates that can shift the afternoon maximum. Timeanddate’s Shanghai forecast for 10 August shows high rain probability and overcast conditions, while Weather Underground’s Daily Observations will be the decisive feed once temperatures update in real time.[12][7] A bot or copy-trading system should watch for the first post-dawn climb, then re-price only when the station observation series prints a new session high; if a rainfall band or thunderstorm line holds through midday, the cap on the eventual maximum usually drops materially.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.