Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, the official proxy for Seoul’s weather data. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests traders believe the outcome is either impossible to predict with certainty or that the market has already resolved to a null state, though the settlement window remains open until midday UTC. Historically, June in Seoul sees daily highs climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F, yet 2025 shattered these norms with record-breaking averages across southern cities like Mokpo and Busan, where temperatures hit 28.1°C amid a sweltering heat wave[1][2]. This precedent frames the 0% probability not as a dismissal of heat, but as a signal that the market may be mispriced relative to the extreme volatility observed in recent summers, where 59 of 97 stations recorded unprecedented June averages[7].

For a power-user approaching this programmatically, the catalyst to monitor is the live Wunderground feed for Incheon, which will resolve the market based on the highest temperature recorded at any time on 26 June[3]. Traders should script conditional orders to trigger if the feed shows temperatures exceeding 31°C, a threshold confirmed by Seoul’s June 19 data earlier this month[9]. Recent reports from the Korea Meteorological Administration confirm South Korea’s summer average reached 25.6°C, the highest on record, indicating a systemic shift toward hotter conditions that could push Incheon’s peak well beyond historical norms[6]. The dependency here is the real-time data stream; without it, no algorithmic position can be validated, making the Wunderground link the critical node for any automated strategy[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.