Highest temperature in Seoul on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for Seoul in July shows daily highs typically rising from 81°F to 85°F, rarely dipping below 74°F or exceeding 91°F[1]. Recent records are particularly stark: South Korea endured its second-hottest July since 1973, with an average of 27.1°C, and Seoul recently hit 37.8°C, the highest early-July temperature in 117 years[4][7]. This context makes the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a 26°C threshold appear statistically anomalous, as 26°C sits well below the typical seasonal average and recent extreme lows.

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time station feeds for Incheon, specifically tracking the 3.15pm peak window cited in recent heat events[7]. The primary catalyst is the ongoing heatwave pattern that has already pushed tropical nights to record lengths in Seoul, a trend that lingers well into the night and suggests sustained daytime intensity[6]. Traders should watch for any official announcements regarding monsoon onset or cloud cover changes, as the absence of such cooling factors in early July has historically correlated with record-breaking highs[9]. The market’s resolution depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day, making the 3.15pm peak the critical dependency for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.