Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 20 July 2026, with the market tracking the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport. The settlement relies on Wunderground data for the RKSI station, converting the real-world thermal peak into a specific Celsius range. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the offered range, likely due to the region’s typical July volatility.

Historical July data shows Seoul averages highs of 28°C with a 43% daily precipitation chance, often moderating extreme heat through rain and cloud cover [1]. Comparable years frequently see temperatures oscillating between 25°C and 32°C, meaning a 0% probability implies the market expects a significant deviation from this norm, either a rare cool spell or an uncharacteristic heatwave that bypasses the specific range. Traders evaluating this programmatically should model stochastic weather patterns against the 28°C baseline to identify where the 0% line is mispriced relative to historical variance.

Key catalysts include the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave advisories and real-time precipitation forecasts, which directly influence maximum temperature readings. A sudden monsoon front could suppress highs below the range, while a stagnant high-pressure system might push them above. Traders should monitor the 24-hour radar updates and Wunderground’s hourly history for RKSI, as conditional orders triggered by precipitation thresholds often outperform static position holding in this volatile window. Recent climate reports note increasing July temperature variability in the Korean peninsula, adding a layer of uncertainty to standard seasonal models.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.