Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 2 July 2026, a date falling squarely within South Korea’s monsoon season. While the current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 0%, historical data suggests Seoul’s July highs typically range between 27°C and 32°C, with extremes occasionally breaching 37°C during record heatwaves. Recent anomalies, such as the country’s highest-ever July temperatures topping 40°C in 2023, demonstrate that low-probability outcomes can materialise rapidly when atmospheric conditions align[10]. For a power-user evaluating tooling, this implies that programmatically filtering for “28°C” or higher is essential, as the market’s frontrunner currently assigns a 39% chance to that specific threshold, contradicting the 0% implied probability for the broader range[1].

Traders must monitor the progression of the Jangma rainy season, which typically concludes by mid-July but can extend, bringing short, heavy downpours that temporarily suppress temperatures before humidity drives a steamy rebound[3]. The primary catalyst is the interplay between clearing skies and rising moisture; once rain clears, temperatures often surge, creating a “steam” effect that can push readings toward 30°C or higher[3]. A critical dependency is the air quality index, as hotter days frequently correlate with poorer air quality, which can influence local microclimates and station readings near the river versus hillier districts[5]. Programmatic approaches should ingest real-time Wunderground data for Incheon, cross-referencing with Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts for daily highs ranging 25°C to 31°C, to identify deviations from the average 27°C high[5][7]. Recent news confirms Seoul and surrounding areas will remain hot and humid through the weekend, reinforcing the likelihood of elevated temperatures despite the monsoon context[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.