Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport's official weather station and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's high before the market locks. This is a straightforward data-point resolution with no ambiguity in measurement location or source.

Mid-July in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an outcome at the lower end of the range or reflecting genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will be hit. Historical July records for Incheon show peaks in the 34–37°C band during exceptional heat events, though 2023 and 2024 saw more moderate patterns. Reviewing Wunderground's archive for comparable dates provides the baseline: traders building automated resolution checks should parse the daily high field directly rather than inferring from hourly data.

The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues heat advisories 48 hours in advance when temperatures are forecast to exceed regional thresholds. Monitoring their English-language forecasts and the KMA's official website through early July will signal whether atmospheric conditions are trending toward the upper or lower temperature ranges. Traders using conditional order logic or bot-based monitoring should set alerts on KMA announcements and cross-reference against Wunderground's forecast updates, which update multiple times daily and feed directly into the resolution source used here.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.