Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Incheon International Airport’s maximum temperature on 6 August will be set by the day’s warmest hourly observation, so the key issue is not the morning reading but whether heat peaks into the afternoon and how long it stays elevated. The current crowd price of 0% YES looks detached from the live setup: Seoul is under an active heatwave emergency warning, with forecasts around 39°C for Seoul and 38°C for Incheon, while nearby airport-area observations already show very humid, cloudy conditions and temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. [2][3][14][15]

For historical framing, August is already the warmest stretch of the year in Seoul, with average daily highs around 26–29°C and typical August highs often near 30°C, while the record August high cited for Seoul is 38.2°C. Forecast products for today cluster around 30°C for Seoul and 32°C for the airport area, but several Korean outlets report unusually severe heat and note that the Korea Meteorological Administration’s maximum-temperature forecasts can err by about 1°C, which matters if the market is partitioned into narrow ranges. [1][11][16][17]

A trader approaching this programmatically would treat the market like a single-day extreme-value extraction problem: poll the Wunderground history page after settlement for the highest recorded Incheon Intl Airport Station temperature, and compare live KMA/forecast outputs, radar, and hourly updates for drift in the afternoon peak. The main catalysts are any late-day convective rain, sea-breeze moderation, or thunderstorm activity that could cap the maximum, versus persistence of the heat advisory and weak winds that would support a higher peak. [2][3][14][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.