Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 12 August 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. August in Seoul typically sees peak summer heat, with historical highs in the 33–35°C range during mid-month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific threshold bands available or waiting for seasonal forecasts to crystallise before committing capital.

Historical August data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. The airport station recorded 34.2°C on 12 August 2023 and 33.8°C on the same date in 2022, establishing a baseline for typical mid-summer conditions. Traders building automated resolution checks should note that Weather Underground's Daily Observations table occasionally differs from the Day High & Low summary—a discrepancy that matters for edge cases near threshold boundaries. Programmatic monitoring of both data sources through August 2026 will be essential for conditional orders or bot-triggered positions.

The primary catalyst remains the East Asian monsoon pattern and any tropical systems tracking toward the Korean peninsula in early-to-mid August. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead; traders should monitor their August seasonal outlook and any typhoon watches issued in late July. Humidity levels and cloud cover will modulate the daily high significantly, making real-time atmospheric pressure and upper-air patterns worth tracking as settlement approaches. API access to historical Incheon station data will help calibrate threshold expectations before the market closes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.