Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular dataset rather than the summary high-low figures. This distinction matters for programmatic resolution: traders building automated monitoring tools should query the specific table endpoint, not scrape the front-end display, to avoid reconciliation errors when the two sources diverge. August in Seoul typically peaks between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-to-high 30s.

Historical August data from Incheon shows extreme temperatures cluster around 34–36°C during anomalous heat events, most recently in 2018 and 2022 when the Korea Meteorological Administration issued heat warnings. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market's range brackets are positioned above typical August maxima, making this a tail-risk calibration exercise. Traders evaluating conditional order logic should note that Seoul's August weather is heavily influenced by the Pacific High and Tibetan High interaction; a northward shift in the Pacific High typically drives sustained heat.

The South Korean meteorological forecast cycle updates daily through the KMA's official releases, with medium-range outlooks published five days ahead. Traders monitoring this market should set alerts on KMA heat-wave advisories and cross-reference them against Weather Underground's historical station data to establish baseline volatility. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 11 August, creating a hard stop for any last-minute observational updates from the airport station.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.