Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s daytime maximum is likely to be shaped by the same late-summer heatwave pattern that has already pushed South Korea into record territory this month. Reuters reported on 6 August that the capital was forecast to reach 39C amid an extreme spell, while KMA-backed reporting noted 37.9C in Seoul on 6 August and 36.7C on 3 August, so the market’s 0% YES implies a heavy miss against a very hot baseline rather than a normal August day.[10][13][11]

For historical framing, August in Seoul is typically hot and humid, with average highs in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, but the upper tail can move quickly when easterly winds and strong insolation align.[9][14] For a trader using conditional orders or a bot, the practical read is to watch whether short-range forecast updates keep the cap near 33–35C or whether an afternoon spike breaks higher; the market description says settlement depends on the Daily Observations table at Weather Underground, not the summary high/low block, so programmatic checks should target that table and only lock after the first datapoint for the following date is published.[2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.