Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport on 9 July 2026, with the current crowd-implied probability for any outcome above the settlement threshold sitting at 0% YES. This reflects the seasonal reality that July is São Paulo’s coldest month, where average highs hover around 21.8°C, making extreme heat statistically improbable for this specific date [4]. Historical data confirms daily highs in July typically range between 23°C and 27°C, rarely dipping below 18°C or exceeding 29°C, which aligns with the market’s heavy weighting on the 22°C outcome at 98% probability [1][7].

Programmatic traders should script queries against the Wunderground daily history endpoint for SBGR to automate resolution checks, as the settlement relies exclusively on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day [1]. While Brazil recently experienced a severe heatwave with perceived temperatures in Rio reaching 62°C, this event was geographically isolated and does not alter the winter climatology of São Paulo [5]. Traders monitoring conditional orders must watch for any anomalous weather service announcements regarding micro-climate shifts, though no such catalysts are currently scheduled, and the 23°C outcome remains a distant 1% probability compared to the frontrunner [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.