Highest temperature in Paris on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 26 June 2026, with settlement confirmed by Wunderground data. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, suggesting traders expect conditions to remain well below the threshold required for a positive resolution. This stark pricing contrasts with recent June extremes in France, where the metropolitan Paris area hit 40.9°C on 28 June 2019, setting a new record for the month [8]. Historical data shows the warm season typically begins 12 June, with average daily highs exceeding 21°C, yet the 38°C forecast for today indicates a significant heatwave is already active [3][1].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would monitor the Met Office hourly forecast, which currently predicts 38°C for Friday with a 40% rain probability, a critical dependency that could suppress peak temperatures [4]. Traders must watch for real-time updates on cloud cover and precipitation, as even light rain can rapidly lower surface temperatures below the resolution threshold. The BBC Weather report confirms sunny conditions with a gentle breeze and a high of 38°C, but the 90% probability of rain noted yesterday suggests volatility remains high [1][2]. For a conditional order strategy, the key catalyst is the 12:00 UTC settlement window; any sudden shift in precipitation forecasts before this time could invalidate the current 0% pricing, making live Wunderground feeds essential for automated execution [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.