Highest temperature in Paris on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 6 July 2026, a date currently flagged by meteorologists as the onset of France’s second exceptional heatwave. While the crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 0%, this reflects a lack of consensus rather than an absence of heat, as forecasts from Météo-France predict highs between 34°C and 38°C across the Paris region for this period[3].

Historically, similar July heatwaves in northern France have consistently driven temperatures into the mid-30s Celsius, with the 2026 event already showing peaks of 36°C to 37°C in the preceding days[2]. Programmatic traders should note that the market on Polymarket currently assigns a 54% probability to the 34°C range, with 33°C as the next closest outcome at 35%, suggesting the crowd is pricing in a high but not record-breaking day[1]. The key catalyst to monitor is the influx of warm air from North Africa, which Météo-France has identified as the primary driver for these tropical conditions, potentially pushing peaks toward 40°C if the jet stream shifts[3]. Traders must also watch the official Wunderground data release at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date, as this is the definitive resolution source for the highest temperature recorded at any time on that day[1]. Recent alerts indicate a red heatwave status for 54 departments, confirming that high temperatures will persist around the clock, making the overnight lows a critical variable for the daily maximum calculation[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.