Highest temperature in Paris on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 5 July 2026, which will determine whether the market settles on the 30°C bucket or any other range. Historical data shows Paris July highs typically span 20°C to 43°C, with an average peak near 26°C and a record of 43°C set in 2019 during a severe heatwave[2][3]. Recent European heatwaves have pushed national thermal indicators to 29.8°C, yet Paris-specific peaks often exceed this average, frequently landing between 29°C and 31°C in warm years[5][8]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a 30°C outcome appears inconsistent with these patterns, suggesting either a mispricing or an unusually cold forecast not yet reflected in public summaries[1].

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor real-time updates from Météo-France and ECMWF, as the market remains highly sensitive to the next 48-hour forecast revision[1]. Key catalysts include the official red heatwave alerts issued by Meteo France for 54 departments, which signal persistent high temperatures across western Europe and increase the likelihood of peaks reaching or exceeding 30°C in Paris[6]. Additionally, the 14-day forecast trends from AccuWeather indicate daily highs ranging from 74°F to 98°F (24°C to 37°C) for July 2026, providing a baseline for conditional order strategies[7]. A power-user would also track Wunderground’s hourly data feed for Paris-Le Bourget, as the resolution source relies on the highest temperature recorded at any time on that day[1]. The momentum composite currently leans cautiously bullish on the YES outcome, with a 3.0% price increase in the last hour, reinforcing the need for automated monitoring of forecast shifts[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.