Highest temperature in Paris on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its peak temperature for 17 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that high. Historical data shows July is Paris’s warmest month, averaging a high of 27.0°C, while rainfall remains modest at 46.2mm spread over roughly five days [1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome reflects a fragmented market rather than a consensus on cold weather; instead, the frontrunner is 26°C at 92% probability, with 27°C trailing at 7% [2]. This distribution suggests traders expect a typical summer day slightly below the monthly average, making the 0% figure a mechanical artifact of the market’s binary or multi-outcome structure rather than a prediction of freezing conditions.

Programmatically, a trader would script a daily fetch from Wunderground’s history API for the LFPB station, comparing the returned maximum against the market’s resolution ranges to execute conditional orders before the 2026-07-17T12:00:00Z settlement window. Key catalysts include real-time meteorological bulletins from Météo-France and any sudden shifts in regional heatwave forecasts, which could rapidly alter the implied probability of higher ranges like 28°C or 29°C. While no specific announcement has been issued yet for mid-July 2026, traders should monitor the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for evolving high-pressure systems that typically drive Parisian temperatures above the 27.0°C average [1]. The market’s low initial probability on extreme heat aligns with the statistical likelihood of a standard July day, but a sudden atmospheric shift could invalidate the current 92% confidence in 26°C [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.