Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius reading at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 13 July 2026, with the crowd assigning only a 1% probability to the event resolving as a specific high-temperature outcome. Historically, mid-July highs in Paris average 23–25°C, rarely exceeding 31°C, though extreme heatwaves have pushed records to 42.4°C in 2019[2][4]. The current 1% implied probability suggests the market views a significant spike as unlikely, yet the frontrunner outcome is 34°C at 46%, with 35°C at 28%, indicating traders expect a warm but not record-breaking day[1].

Programmatically, a trader would script a monitor against the Wunderground daily history endpoint for LFPB, parsing the “max temp” field at 00:00 UTC each hour to catch the daily peak before settlement[1]. Key catalysts include the Meteo-France heatwave bulletins and the European heatwatch schedule, which flag red alerts when temperatures threaten to breach 35°C in the Île-de-France region. Recent coverage of France’s 2026 heatwave, which saw 44.3°C in Landes, underscores the volatility of summer extremes, though Paris remains cooler than southern outliers[9]. Traders should watch for official red-alert announcements, as these often correlate with sustained highs above 34°C and could shift the 1% probability if a severe event materialises.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.