Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the peak daily temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, a metric that historically clusters tightly around 82–83°F in late June. Recent data from identical Polymarket events for 24 and 26 June confirms this range as the frontrunner at 100% probability, rendering the current 0% crowd-implied probability for lower ranges statistically anomalous [1][2]. Programmatic traders evaluating conditional orders would flag this divergence immediately, as historical climatological reports show daily highs consistently landing between 77°F and 92°F, with a June average near 82°F [4][5]. An algorithmic approach would treat the 0% signal as a potential liquidity error rather than a genuine market view, given that Wunderground archives for the specific date record a maximum of 84.2°F, reinforcing the 82–83°F band as the dominant outcome [8].

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s climatological dependencies and any sudden cold front announcements that could disrupt the prevailing summery heatwave. A recent New York Times forecast noted that while temperatures surged into the low 90s across the Northeast on 5 June, a cold front was expected to bring scattered thunderstorms and cooler air by Saturday night, though warmth lingered into Sunday [3]. For a power-user building a bot, the critical dependency is the Wunderground settlement feed, which aggregates the highest temperature for all times on the day; any deviation from the 82–83°F range would require a rapid re-evaluation of the underlying weather model [6]. The market’s resolution hinges entirely on this specific data point from LaGuardia, meaning traders should watch for real-time updates on humidity levels and storm intensity, as these factors directly influence peak temperature readings in the region [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.