Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit by Weather Underground. This single-day maximum determines the market resolution, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being bet on, likely due to expectations of cooler conditions or a mismatch with historical extremes.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: LaGuardia reached 102°F on 4 July 2026 during a persistent heatwave, and its all-time high is 107°F recorded on 3 July 1966 [1][8]. More recently, the airport hit 104°F on 2 July 2026, just days before the target date [8]. These comparable cases indicate that while extreme heat is possible, the 0% probability may reflect a belief that the specific range in question is too high to be hit, even if temperatures remain warm. A power-user approaching this programmatically would query Wunderground’s historical API for KLGA on 9 July 2026, cross-referencing with NWS climatological normals (max 98°F in 1993) to validate the range’s plausibility [3].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and NWS forecasts for LaGuardia, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind could suppress peak temperatures. Recent news confirms the East Coast heatwave persisted into early July, with midnight temperatures breaking records [1][5]. However, AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for LaGuardia suggests daily highs ranging from 73°F to 91°F, with overnight lows between 65°F and 76°F [6]. This dependency on short-term atmospheric conditions means the market is highly sensitive to live data feeds, and a conditional order strategy would require automated alerts triggered by Wunderground’s hourly KLGA updates. No announcements or schedules are pending, but the resolution source’s reliance on real-time data makes this a high-frequency utility for algorithmic traders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.