Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a figure that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any “YES” outcome. This real-world event hinges on atmospheric conditions during a period of intense heat across the East Coast, where recent data shows LaGuardia hit 94°F at midnight on a record-breaking night, surpassing the 2013 benchmark of 93°F[1][3]. Such extremes suggest that daytime highs could easily exceed the 84–85°F range, which holds 34.5% odds in parallel markets, indicating the current 0% probability may be misaligned with observed thermal trends[2].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would monitor real-time feeds from Wunderground and NWS forecasts, particularly the daily high/low projections for LaGuardia, which historically show a maximum of 100°F in 1999[5][6]. Recent reports confirm both LaGuardia and Newark reached 104°F on a single day in July 2026, with heat indexes peaking despite dew points climbing into the 70s[9]. Traders should watch for official NWS announcements on heat advisories and any updates from FOX Weather regarding the ongoing heat dome, as these serve as critical catalysts that could shift settlement outcomes[1][7]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 5 July 2026, requiring precise timing in data ingestion and conditional order execution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.