Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 4 July 2026, a date historically prone to extreme heat in New York City. Programmatic traders would approach this by querying Wunderground’s daily history API for KLGA, filtering for the maximum value across all timestamps on that specific day, then mapping the result to the market’s resolution ranges. This utility-focused angle treats the market as a data-validation tool rather than a speculative gamble, allowing power-users to test conditional order logic against verified climatological records.

Historical precedent frames the current 0% YES probability as potentially premature, given LaGuardia’s record-breaking heat trends. On 3 July 1966, the airport reached 107°F, its all-time peak, while recent data shows NYC recorded its warmest midnight ever at 94°F earlier this year, with LaGuardia hitting 104°F in a separate event that surpassed the old 101°F record[2][7]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for LaGuardia predicts highs between 81°F and 99°F, yet the 0% probability ignores the volatility seen in past July 4s where temperatures frequently exceeded 95°F[4]. Traders should monitor National Weather Service updates for LaGuardia, as sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns can trigger rapid temperature spikes, and watch for any official announcements regarding heat advisories that might correlate with extreme readings[1]. The recent FoxWeather report on the 94°F midnight milestone underscores how heat can persist beyond typical daytime peaks, a dependency critical for algorithmic models evaluating this market[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.