Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport on 20 July 2026, a fixed meteorological event where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome outside the 82–83°F bracket. This 0% YES figure for alternative ranges reflects a consensus that the day will hit that specific narrow window, likely driven by seasonal norms for mid-July in New York City where heatwaves frequently push temperatures into the low 80s.

Historical data from the National Weather Service shows LaGuardia’s July highs typically cluster between 78°F and 86°F, with 82–83°F representing a statistically probable median rather than an outlier [2]. Programmatic traders evaluating this setup would note that the 100% frontrunner status for 82–83°F suggests the market has already priced in standard summer conditions, leaving little room for arbitrage unless a sudden atmospheric shift occurs.

Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast updates and real-time Wunderground hourly feeds, which serve as the official resolution source [1]. Traders running conditional orders should monitor the 5 AM UTC daily forecast release for the New York area, as any deviation from the predicted high could trigger rapid re-pricing before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 July.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.