Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record a single highest temperature on 19 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and logged by the National Weather Service station there. This reading becomes the settlement value, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band contains that figure. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full distribution.

Historical July temperatures at LaGuardia cluster between 78°F and 88°F for daily highs, with the airport's all-time July record standing at 104°F (set in 1999). The past decade shows most mid-July days reaching 82–86°F under typical Atlantic conditions. For programmatic traders, this means the probability mass should concentrate in the 80–90°F bands, with tail risk assigned to both cooler (tropical system interference) and hotter (heat dome persistence) scenarios. Comparing to adjacent years' patterns—July 2024 peaked at 89°F on the 19th—provides a useful baseline for calibrating conditional orders around seasonal norms.

The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly 10–14 days before settlement, with meaningful updates arriving 3–5 days prior. Traders should monitor Atlantic hurricane season activity (peak activity begins in August but early-season systems can influence July weather) and upper-atmosphere ridge positioning. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center publishes monthly outlooks; their June 2026 outlook will frame whether July leans warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Real-time tracking via Wunderground's historical data feed allows automated resolution verification once the settlement window closes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.